Odds Of Trump Lasting A Full Term
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- Odds Of Trump Lasting A Full Term President
It happened, folks.
The promise of a single term could, in theory, encourage some Democrats who would prefer a female, minority, and/or younger candidate to back him as the most electable choice against Trump, safe. There are also markets that simply stipulate when Trump will leave office. Odds on Trump Completing His First Term. Paddy Power is paying 11/10 on a wager that Trump will cease to be the President in 2020 or later. In other words, this is a bet that Trump will complete his first term.
Despite the fact that he lost the popular vote (for those of you who slept through civics class, that means more voters cast their ballots for Hillary Clinton), Donald Trump will be our next president.
As a result of the shocking outcome of yesterday's election, many questions loom large today:
Is he really going to try and make Mexico pay for a border wall?
Is the president actually going to ban people from entering the country based on their religious affiliations?
Should millions of Americans be afraid that the person who's soon to be the most powerful man in the country will discriminate against them on the basis of their race, gender, or spiritual beliefs?
The answers: no; it's an incredibly sad possibility; and it's a tragic certainty.
One of the questions that has no clear answer, however, is:
Does Donald Trump really even want to be president?
After all, it's impossible to count the number of times he seemed to self-sabotage over the course of his 17-month campaign.
His behavior was so erratic, his ground game so non-existent that some even speculated he was participating in a conspiratorial effort to get Hillary Clinton elected.
Trump wanting the attention that comes with running for president but not wanting to do the work that's involved in occupying the highest office in the land has even been a running joke on South Park throughout the show's entire twentieth season.
(Showrunners Trey Parker and Matt Stone are reportedly frantically re-writing tonight's episode, as many of the jokes had centered around Hillary winning the election.)
Insiders have claimed that Mike Pence and other GOP heavyweights (must ... resist ... Chris Christie joke) who were vetted to be Trump's running mate were promised that they would serve as 'the most powerful vice president in American history.'
The reason for that, of course, being that Trump has no desire to actually govern.
It's all enough to make you wonder if the man will even last four years in the Oval Office.
There's a very real possibility that he'll just step down the first time he gets a call from the King of Jordan and dejectedly hangs up upon realizing it's not Phil Jackson.
Odds Of Trump Lasting A Full Term Abortions
And on top of the fact that Trump is the first president to give us reason to believe he doesn't actually want the job (with the possible exception of Franklin Pierce. That drunk-ass had no f-cks to give.), he's also carrying more legal baggage into the White House than any of his predecessors.
On top of a pending fraud lawsuit, the real-estate-mogul-turned-demagogue has been involved in more than 3,500 legal actions, and the number of women who accused Trump of sexual assault has now risen to twelve.
He's told reporters that as commander-in-chief, he plans to order the military to target families of suspected terrorists and violate the Geneva Convention by torturing prisoners.
Odds Of Trump Lasting A Full Term Life Insurance
If he goes through with that our president will, objectively, be a war criminal.
In short, though impeachment is a rarely-used and highly disruptive tactic, Trump's opponents have plenty to work with already, and he's still more than two months away from his inauguration.
As difficult as it may be, all Americans should wish Trump luck and hope for the best from his time in office.
Of course, we doubt many tears would be shed if his time in office proved to be unexpectedly brief...
© JIM WATSON / Contributor/Getty Images This combination of pictures created on September 29, 2020 shows Democratic Presidential candidate and former US Vice President Joe Biden (L) and US President Donald Trump speaking during the first presidential debate at the Case Western Reserve University and Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, Ohio on September 29, 2020.Both President Donald Trump, 74, and former Vice President Joe Biden, 77, are 'super-agers' overwhelmingly likely to live beyond their mid-80s—but a new study finds Biden has a higher probability of outliving his younger opponent.
The age and mental acuity of both septuagenarian presidential candidates became a campaign talking point almost immediately after Biden, who would be the oldest president to ever take office, joined the 2020 race against Trump, who is currently the oldest U.S. president to enter office. A new study published in September's Journal on Active Aging draws on publicly available medical records, family disease history and confirmed personal information to determine how ageism and longevity have factored into the election.
Neither candidate is projected to have major cognitive functioning challenges now or over the next four years, despite critical campaign rhetoric claiming otherwise.
Biden, who will turn 78 just days after the November 3 election, has a 95.2 percent probability of surviving a four-year term in office, compared to Trump at 90.3 percent, according to the study data. Conversely, there is an 82.2 percent chance Biden does not live through January 2025, while Trump has an 86.2 percent chance of dying prior to the end of his potential second White House term.
The study authors say both candidates are 'super-agers' who are overwhelmingly likely to maintain their health far beyond the end of the next term. Their findings suggest age should not be a factor in voters' decisions at the ballot box despite both being well positioned to break all previous records as the oldest president in U.S. history.
'Both candidates appear to be on course to become 'super-agers,' men and women who live into their eighties or longer, with preserved physical and cognitive function,' said co-author Bradley Willcox, director of research at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa's Department of Geriatric Medicine at the John A. Burns School of Medicine. 'They face lower than average risk of experiencing significant health or cognitive functioning challenges during the next four years.'
Using data tied to genetics, social risk factors and behavioral patterns, Biden is expected to outlive Trump despite being three years older than the president. Each candidate's parents lived beyond their mid-80s, with Biden's father living to be 87 and his mother to 93 years of age. Trump's mother lived to be 88 and his father lived to be 94 years old.
'The results are evidence that age does not matter in this historic election in which the next elected president will be the oldest in American history,' said corresponding study author Stuart Jay Olshansky, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Illinois at Chicago. 'We see chronological age as a topic of discussion time and again during elections, even though scientific and medical evidence tells us that biological age is far more important.'
Trump has an elevated familial risk of developing late-onset Alzheimer's disease, but the study authors note 'neither candidate is expected to have major cognitive functioning challenges' in the near future. The researchers write that Biden has a 'nearly perfect health profile for a man his age,' but Trump has 'significant but modifiable' risk factors, notably his weight.
Both candidates are projected to live longer than the average man in the United States. The probability that Biden reaches the age of 85 is 66 percent and Trump's is placed at 60 percent. Despite the Trump campaign repeatedly calling Biden's mental competency into question, the study authors say this is not the case for either candidate. The study was conducted and released prior to Trump's announcement early Friday that he had contracted COVID-19. His physicians said Saturday that he is set for a full and quick recovery.
'The weaponizing of aging to portray the opposing candidate as a doddering old fool, in the presidential campaign, is ageism, pure and simple,' Wilcox said in a press release Friday. 'In this election, each candidate is biologically younger than their chronological age.'
Odds Of Trump Lasting A Full Term President
Newsweek reached out to the study authors and both campaigns for additional remarks Saturday afternoon.