Derby Picks 2015
2015 Kentucky Derby Picks and Analysis Kentucky Derby-G1 Race 11, Churchill Downs, Saturday, May 2, 2015 3-Year-Olds, 1 1/4-miles, Dirt, Purse: $2 Million Kentucky Derby Picks 1. American Pharoah Kentucky Derby Superfecta Longshots Danzig Moon, El Kabeir, Carpe Diem, Far Right, Frammento, Keen Ice, Itsaknockout, War Story. It appears most experts from the world of thoroughbred racing side with odds makers when it comes to who will win the 2015 Kentucky Derby Saturday at Churchill Downs.
If you’re a bettor, this is the place to read about the sleeper of the Kentucky Derby. Expect for everyone to bet on Bob Baffert’s two horses Dortmund and American Pharoah , leaving room to make money on horses besides the top two. The only horse to give these two a challenge is Simon Callaghan’s Firing Line. His experience in the prep races with Dormund is going to be valuable, and there is no better jockey than Gary Stevens to help guide him to the winners circle. Like last year, the West Coast horses will be the favorites. Here are our top 3 horses of the Kentucky Derby
American Pharoah (SHOW): American Pharoah will head into the Derby as the morning line favorite at 5-2 with Victor Espinoza on board. Espinoza will look for his second-straight Derby win and trainer Bob Baffert will look for his first win at the Run for the Roses since 2002, where he won it with War Emblem, who was also ridden by Espinoza. American Pharoah has left no doubt that he will be the clear favorite by post time. The only obstacle he will have is history. Not one horse coming out of the No. 17 spot has ever won the Derby. American Pharoah is No. 18, but since Stanford scratched, he will come out of No. 17 spot. Pharaoh will need to come out clean off the gate to get near the rail after the first furlong. He hasn’t had to battle too much, especially after a romp in the Arkansas Derby. This time, he’ll be challenge by the best 3-year-olds in the country.
Dortmund (PLACE): The massive colt Dortmund will look to follow the steps of his sire Big Brown (2008 winner) by winning the 2015 Kentucky Derby. Dortmund has been on a tear, winning all six of his races, including four graded stakes. At the Santa Anita Derby, Dortmund had no challenge whatsoever, but in the two races before the Santa Anita Derby, he had to battle our top pick of the Kentucky Derby, Firing Line. In Las Vegas, people are betting heavily on Dortmund to finish on top of the 2015 Kentucky Derby.
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Firing Line (WIN): Third time is a charm! Trained by Simon Callaghan, Firing Line will upset both American Pharoah and Dortmund at the 141 Kentucky Derby. We don’t understand how the only horse who has given Dortmund a challenge is at 12-to-1. In their past two meetings, Firing Line lost to Dormtund by less than a length. People are going to bet on both the favorites so much that Firing Line might get a very attractive price at 20-to-1 or more! To back up this horse even more, Gary Stevens will get the mount. You couldn’t ask for a better jockey for the 3-year-old. Stevens has more experience than any other jockey entered at the Derby. “A lot of these guys weren’t even born when I won my first Kentucky Derby,” said Stevens. If he wins this race with Firing Line, the story lines of a potential Triple Crown will be endless. For the money, it is too hard to not bet on Firing Line.
With the $5 Million Dollar Breeders’ Cup Classic four months away, it is time to start looking ahead at the potential contenders for the Super Bowl of thoroughbred racing. No surprise, with Shared Belief being injured and out for the rest of the year, that the Triple Crown winner American Pharoah tops the list. But a lot can happen in five months so keep an eye on the winners of the “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Classic races. Particularly, the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park August 2nd, the Whitney Handicap at Saratoga August 8th, the prestigious Travers Stakes at Saratoga August 29th and the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park October 3rd.
And now for my top 7 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contender list:
1) American Pharoah – He currently is ranked #1 in Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings. And much deserved as he is the first Triple Crown Winner in 37 years. His return to racing appears to be the Haskell Invitational August 2nd. Followed by the Travers Stakes August 29th
2)California Chrome – The 2014 Horse of the Year, he has had a decent 2015 with two 2nd places in two starts–the San Antonio Handicap (behind Shared Belief) and Dubai World Cup. I really liked his performance in the Dubai World Cup even though he finished 2nd. His next start could be the Arlington Million on August 15th. But note that if he runs in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he will have a different jockey as Victor Espinosz will ride American Pharoah.
3) Firing LIne – Although he bombed in the muddy Preakness Stakes, he never finished worst than 2nd before this race. And remember that he finished a length behind American Pharoah in the Kentucky Derby– the same 1 & 1/4 mile distance as the Breeders’ Cup Classic will be. Some horses don’t race well in the slop, so I think he deserves a Mulligan for his Preakness performance.
4) Bayern– Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. He has had less than stellar performances (6th, 10th) in two races this year. But both were a mile or under. However, this was thought to be his strength last year and many questioned how he would fare in two-turn races. I expect this Bob Baffert-trained horse to bounce back. His next start appears to be the San Diego Handicap on July 25th.
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5) Tonalist – This year, he won the Westchester Stakes and finished 2nd in the Met Mile. But with his pedigree (Sire Tapit). he is better suited for races longer than 1 mile. He won the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Belmont Stakes last year and finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. His next start will be the Suburban Handicap on July 4th.
6) Dortmund– He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and 4th in the Preakness Stakes. But remember that he has won 6 races out of 8 starts. Another Bob Baffert-trained horse that I expect to improve. He will be entered into the Los Alamitos Derby on July 4th.
7) Constitution– Winner of 4 out 6 career starts which includes the Donn Handicap earlier in the year. Currently tied with Shared Belief for the Top Beyer Speed Figure in 2015 for races longer than a mile with a speed figure of 111. He has never raced longer than a 1 1/8th mile. However, with his pedigree (Sire Tapit) I have no concerns that he will have distance issues. No word on when his next start will be.
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Other horses to keep an eye on: Palace Malice, Lea, Hard Aces, Moreno, Frosted, Honor Code, Noble Bird, Texas Red and Toast of New York who finished 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year but has yet to race this year. Texas Red, if fully recovered, was my early Kentucky Derby favorite before his injury set-back. His closing style will be an asset in a 1 1/4 mile race.
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–Michael